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All writing

ASML: a monopoly with a backlog

The only supplier of EUV lithography is priced like one. The interesting question is how export controls and customer capex cycles interact with a multi-year order book.

Sample note. Numbers are illustrative placeholders, not live data.

The moat

ASML is the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems. There is no second source and the lead time to build one runs to decades. That is about as durable as competitive advantages get.

The complication

Durable is not the same as smooth. Orders arrive in lumps, customers can defer, and export controls can remove an entire geography from the addressable market in one announcement.

Metric Value
Backlog €39B
EUV share of system sales 48%
Gross margin 51.3%
Forward P/E 34.7x

What I would want to see

A backlog that converts on schedule through a downturn. That is the test of whether the multiple is earned.


Educational content only. Not investment advice.